Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221031 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 28.5 28.8 33.6 36.5 22.7 27.5 19.7 N N N U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 33.0 31.0 26.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.6 97.9 89.4 83.5 72.7 63.0 55.8 55.8 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 40.0 25.0 -9.0 -20.0 -7.0 13.0 14.0 N N U U VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.5 63.0 59.0 49.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.5 4.0 7.0 17.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 N N N N U U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.5% 9.9% 11.7% 25kt / 24h 14.9% 23.8% 19.3% 30kt / 24h 14.4% 15.1% 14.7% 35kt / 24h 14.4% 15.1% 14.7% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 13.5% 7.2% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 10.7% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.9% 2.0% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.86 WP262022 221031 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.60 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.2 28.5 28.8 33.6 36.5 22.7 27.5 19.7 N N N F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.5 63.0 59.0 49.0 46.0 42.0 42.0 N N N F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 2.5 4.0 7.0 17.0 12.0 12.0 0.0 N N N N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%