Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221031 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 116.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 148.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 31.7 32.8 34.5 25.3 24.1 22.2 20.7 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 21.0 9.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.4 74.8 69.4 64.3 53.6 49.4 34.8 6.7 N U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 19.0 -13.0 -11.0 -16.0 20.0 27.0 15.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 58.0 56.0 51.0 44.0 40.0 36.0 38.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 11.0 11.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.3% 8.1% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 11.6% 11.9% 11.8% 30kt / 24h 11.6% 7.1% 9.4% 35kt / 24h 11.6% 7.1% 9.4% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 6.2% 3.4% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 7.8% 4.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.1% 1.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 WP262022 221031 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 116.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.