Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  27.3  24.1  25.2  24.9  24.4  29.6  40.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  45.8  44.4  43.0  32.0  11.9   9.1   4.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  14.0  15.0  18.0  12.0   8.0  -6.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  50.0  46.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  41.0  43.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  23.0  17.0  16.0  16.0   5.0   2.0   6.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.66

 WP262022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    115.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.