Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221101 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 115.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 28.3 31.2 29.6 19.5 28.4 35.2 43.3 U N U N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.4 46.7 46.7 45.4 25.9 7.8 2.7 5.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 0.0 6.0 12.0 21.0 5.0 -7.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 38.0 U U U VU U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 31.0 35.0 33.0 37.0 11.0 9.0 6.0 7.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.32 WP262022 221101 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 115.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.