Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262022 221101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  30.0  27.1  22.6  23.3  30.8  35.6  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.8  51.7  50.4  46.7  34.7  30.9  29.1  31.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -8.0   4.0   7.0  13.0   0.0 -13.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  49.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  38.0  38.0  37.0  21.0   9.0  14.0   8.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.30

 WP262022 221101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    115.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.