Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221102 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 114.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 100.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 22.8 21.7 22.0 24.2 30.5 30.5 30.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 59.2 55.5 52.0 40.9 37.4 35.0 35.0 35.0 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 21.0 15.0 17.0 14.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 49.0 45.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 32.0 21.0 15.0 9.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 VU VU U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.50 WP262022 221102 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 114.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.