Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262022 221102 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 114.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.1 23.7 21.9 24.9 31.2 40.3 53.4 53.5 N N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.0 53.8 58.2 54.8 62.9 36.9 43.3 45.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 18.0 29.0 13.0 15.0 3.0 -26.0 -9.0 U U N U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 43.0 40.0 38.0 37.0 36.0 37.0 39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 12.0 8.0 5.0 9.0 6.0 7.0 3.0 U U U N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.38 WP262022 221102 12UTC Storm Located at : 21.50 114.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.