Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  37.8  35.2  29.9  23.2  20.4  24.4  21.3  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  95.0  94.0  94.0  96.0  94.0  96.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   0.0  43.0  51.0   7.0   4.0  58.0  40.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  62.0  70.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.2%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%       11.2%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%        2.7%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%        2.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%       19.9%       12.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h       12.6%        8.9%       10.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.5%        6.9%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       43.7%       30.8%       37.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP272022 221030 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    135.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  37.8  35.2  29.9  23.2  20.4  24.4  21.3  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  62.0  70.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%