Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  37.7  37.8  37.2  36.6  32.7  32.7  33.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  96.0  94.0  93.0  95.0  92.0  79.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  51.0  25.0  13.0  -4.0  48.0  24.0 -17.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.0%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       15.3%       11.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        6.2%        4.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.3%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.9%        2.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%       15.1%        8.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        6.2%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.4%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%       11.4%       11.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.84

 WP272022 221031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.00    132.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  37.7  37.8  37.2  36.6  32.7  32.7  33.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%