Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  34.1  34.2  31.7  36.0  38.2  40.5  37.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  94.0  94.0  93.0  95.0  86.0  70.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  54.0  26.0 -18.0  46.0  57.0  -5.0 -13.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        9.9%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%        8.9%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        4.0%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.7%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.9%        5.3%        8.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.80

 WP272022 221031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.20    131.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  34.1  34.2  31.7  36.0  38.2  40.5  37.3  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  64.0  64.0  69.0  69.0  72.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%