Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.5  34.7  32.8  27.9  24.2  25.1  25.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  96.0  95.0  94.0  97.0  95.0  88.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  33.0  26.0  12.0  21.0  29.0  24.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        8.1%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.1%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        8.1%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%        5.1%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        2.2%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h       35.3%       12.8%       24.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.82

 WP272022 221031 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    130.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  33.5  34.7  32.8  27.9  24.2  25.1  25.9  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%