Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.10    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.4  27.1  26.6  22.9  21.4  22.0  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  95.0  96.0  96.0  94.0  95.0  58.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 115.5 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -32.0 -12.0  18.0  33.0  -6.0  -4.0   7.0  U VU  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        9.2%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.6%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       14.9%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%        8.4%       12.7%
 70kt / 48h       16.0%        5.2%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       40.6%       20.2%       30.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.78

 WP272022 221101 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.10    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     31.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.4  27.1  26.6  22.9  21.4  22.0  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  64.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%