Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  24.4  27.8  26.7  21.1  25.6  23.0  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  93.0  94.0  94.0  95.0  57.0   0.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 109.4  95.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  19.0  21.0  23.0   2.0 -17.0  -8.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.0%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.2%       11.9%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%        4.8%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h       11.6%        3.1%        7.3%
 65kt / 72h       24.2%        8.7%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP272022 221101 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      7.40    131.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     37.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  24.4  27.8  26.7  21.1  25.6  23.0  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  62.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  71.0  70.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%