Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282022 221112 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 165.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.0 56.4 58.2 64.6 61.0 47.9 60.6 78.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 37.0 35.0 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.5 101.6 99.8 98.0 81.5 54.7 35.8 9.2 N N N N N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 85.0 89.0 49.0 41.0 72.0 116.0 177.0 168.0 F F N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 69.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 52.0 41.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 18.0 24.0 38.0 60.0 122.0 281.0 125.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 WP282022 221112 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.80 165.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.