Rapid Intensification Guidance WP282022 221113 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.90 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.4 57.9 62.1 59.0 49.0 48.3 63.5 71.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 36.0 30.0 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.6 99.8 98.0 94.4 83.0 52.8 29.1 10.0 N N N N N U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 45.0 48.0 73.0 166.0 176.0 202.0 117.0 N N N N VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 65.0 69.0 68.0 67.0 70.0 56.0 44.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 33.0 40.0 57.0 66.0 133.0 129.0 84.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 WP282022 221113 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.