Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292022 221210 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 70.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 52.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 30.5 34.7 37.0 42.6 51.7 50.4 45.1 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 83.0 76.0 73.0 66.0 48.0 28.0 31.0 42.0 N N N N N U U N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 127.9 130.1 130.1 F F F F F N F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 74.0 71.0 51.0 38.0 53.0 44.0 19.0 8.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 49.0 48.0 40.0 46.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 9.0 13.0 22.0 -3.0 0.0 14.0 U U U U VU N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 3.0% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 9.3% 23.5% 16.4% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 9.7% 6.3% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 8.3% 4.7% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 7.9% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 2.5% 23.0% 12.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 7.6% 3.8% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 3.7% 2.9% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 6.5% 3.2% 4.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.76 WP292022 221210 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 30.5 34.7 37.0 42.6 51.7 50.4 45.1 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 56.0 57.0 49.0 48.0 40.0 46.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 11.0 9.0 13.0 22.0 -3.0 0.0 14.0 F F F F VF N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%