Rapid Intensification Guidance WP292022 221211 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 126.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.90 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 34.6 36.9 45.5 44.8 45.2 46.2 40.0 N U U VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 84.0 66.0 64.0 44.0 27.0 32.0 26.0 24.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 112.4 108.5 110.5 104.8 F F F N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 31.0 43.0 50.0 38.0 26.0 8.0 27.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 50.0 38.0 35.0 42.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 10.0 9.0 14.0 4.0 -27.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U N VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 2.2% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 3.7% 11.4% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 1.1% 3.9% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 3.2% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 7.6% 4.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.8% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.56 WP292022 221211 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.40 126.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 34.6 36.9 45.5 44.8 45.2 46.2 40.0 N F F VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 50.0 38.0 35.0 42.0 N F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 10.0 9.0 14.0 4.0 -27.0 3.0 0.0 F F F F N VU N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.8% 0.1% 0.4%