Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP292022 221213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  21.3  26.8  33.8  38.5  24.6  24.6  24.6  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  95.0  97.0  96.0  94.0  86.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  10.0  19.0  16.0  12.0  28.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.1%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        1.5%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        4.1%        0.5%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h       38.5%        4.7%       21.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP292022 221213 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  21.3  26.8  33.8  38.5  24.6  24.6  24.6  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  42.0  43.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%