Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022023 230602 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  44.1  47.4  64.3  61.3  74.4  74.4  74.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  47.0  69.0  34.0  67.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        114.4 114.4 118.6 120.7 125.1 129.6 129.6 129.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -52.0 -82.0 -90.0 -62.0 -35.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  40.0  37.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -12.0 -14.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  F  F  F VF  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 AL022023 230602 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30     86.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  44.1  47.4  64.3  61.3  74.4  74.4  74.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  40.0  40.0  37.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  33.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -8.0 -12.0 -14.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  U  U  U VU  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       45.6%        0.4%       23.0%