Rapid Intensification Guidance AL022023 230603 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 85.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.30 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.6 56.0 57.3 60.9 63.9 63.9 63.9 63.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 18.0 26.0 57.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 U U U N N N N N Potential [kt] 113.6 117.9 120.1 120.1 127.0 127.0 127.0 127.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -83.0 -36.0 -30.0 -21.0 -23.0 -23.0 -23.0 -23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.86 AL022023 230603 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 85.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 58.6 56.0 57.3 60.9 63.9 63.9 63.9 63.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 56.6% 1.4% 29.0%