Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL022023 230603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90     85.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.9  57.0  60.6  67.1  67.1  67.1  67.1  67.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  31.0  53.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        117.9 120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -29.0 -29.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  36.0  37.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 AL022023 230603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90     85.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.9  57.0  60.6  67.1  67.1  67.1  67.1  67.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  36.0  37.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       52.9%        3.2%       28.0%