Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.3  15.4  16.3  17.2  24.0  27.6  28.3  30.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  15.0  30.0  22.0  16.0  49.0  41.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        101.2  96.0  97.7 101.2 103.0 106.6 108.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  79.0  77.0  94.0 113.0  41.0  12.0 -25.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -6.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.4%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        9.3%        5.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.9%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       22.0%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       10.2%       10.2%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%        6.5%        8.3%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%        8.6%        8.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.68

 AL032023 230619 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.