Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     41.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  18.8  18.5  21.0  26.5  30.1  32.2  26.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  33.0  13.0  12.0  44.0  39.0  50.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         91.0  94.4  94.4  96.2  99.8 103.5 111.5 115.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  86.0  92.0  77.0  75.0  -1.0 -25.0  -1.0  N  F  F  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        5.5%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       11.8%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        8.1%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        2.7%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        4.1%        4.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.62

 AL032023 230619 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     41.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.