Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  17.4  20.1  22.4  26.0  27.6  29.2  28.3  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  15.0  11.0  23.0  46.0  52.0  35.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  96.2  96.2  98.0 103.5 107.4 113.6 117.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  93.0  88.0 116.0  60.0 -38.0 -63.0   3.0  N  F  F  F  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  52.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        4.7%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        9.1%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        9.5%        9.5%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        2.2%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%        3.9%        4.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 AL032023 230620 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     42.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.