Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  19.1  20.7  24.0  26.9  32.0  31.7  37.4  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  11.0  18.0  42.0  40.0  54.0  32.0  47.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         96.2  94.4  98.0  99.8 103.5 109.4 115.7 120.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  88.0 148.0 128.0   4.0 -47.0 -16.0  -6.0  F  F VF  F  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0 -10.0 -10.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        6.4%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        5.6%        5.6%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%        1.3%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        2.6%        3.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.80

 AL032023 230620 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     44.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.