Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230620 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  20.4  23.0  26.3  26.5  33.5  33.2  32.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  36.0  59.0  47.0  52.0  31.0  48.0  43.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         99.8  99.8 101.6 103.5 109.4 115.7 117.9 122.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  93.0 127.0  54.0 -38.0 -15.0   5.0 -12.0  N  F  F  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -8.0 -10.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        3.9%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.8%        3.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        1.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.2%        2.7%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.04

 AL032023 230620 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     46.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.