Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032023 230620 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 48.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.5 25.6 28.2 27.7 34.7 35.0 38.0 26.8 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 59.0 45.0 49.0 36.0 37.0 45.0 40.0 N N N N U U N N Potential [kt] 94.8 96.6 100.5 102.4 108.6 112.9 117.3 117.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 119.0 59.0 12.0 -4.0 -22.0 -10.0 5.0 F F N U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 52.0 51.0 53.0 52.0 56.0 58.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -3.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -6.0 -9.0 -3.0 F N N N F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 1.1% 3.7% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 4.2% 2.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 1.5% 0.6% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 AL032023 230620 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.10 48.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.