Rapid Intensification Guidance AL032023 230621 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 49.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 66.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.4 25.7 25.9 29.3 34.7 32.7 34.8 23.1 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 56.0 44.0 48.0 51.0 29.0 55.0 38.0 42.0 N N N N U N U N Potential [kt] 93.5 97.4 97.4 99.4 105.7 110.1 112.3 112.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 132.0 76.0 45.0 16.0 -7.0 -21.0 -10.0 23.0 F N N U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 51.0 52.0 52.0 53.0 51.0 54.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -4.0 -5.0 N N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.7% 1.9% 2.8% 25kt / 24h 5.8% 9.2% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 40kt / 24h 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 45kt / 36h 2.1% 8.4% 5.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.4% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 70kt / 48h 2.7% 1.4% 2.0% 65kt / 72h 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 AL032023 230621 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 49.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.