Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230621 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  35.7  34.1  32.8  39.0  34.3  38.7  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  34.0  26.0  29.0  58.0  41.0  63.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         89.4  91.5  95.7  97.9 102.3 102.3 100.1  95.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  17.0  -8.0  10.0  10.0  26.0  16.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.1%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        3.5%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.3%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        1.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 AL032023 230621 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     53.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  35.7  34.1  32.8  39.0  34.3  38.7  40.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%