Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230622 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  33.4  28.9  30.5  38.5  28.5  36.7  29.4  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  26.0  28.0  46.0  42.0  40.0  58.0  50.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         91.5  95.7  97.9 100.1 102.3 102.3  97.9  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0   0.0   0.0  16.0   7.0  62.0  41.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        5.3%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        2.2%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        2.1%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%        2.1%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        2.9%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.0%        0.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL032023 230622 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     54.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  33.4  28.9  30.5  38.5  28.5  36.7  29.4  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -5.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%