Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     55.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  26.4  32.3  39.0  33.8  34.5  32.6  32.6  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  28.0  46.0  61.0  41.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.7  92.9  95.1  97.3  97.3  95.1  90.7  90.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   5.0  34.0  20.0  43.0  36.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        2.2%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%        7.4%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        3.4%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        3.2%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%        3.2%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        3.4%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 AL032023 230622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     55.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  26.4  32.3  39.0  33.8  34.5  32.6  32.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%