Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  34.0  41.6  41.1  33.1  41.1  30.2  30.2  N  U VU VU  U VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  39.0  60.0  42.0  35.0  79.0  45.0  45.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         92.9  92.9  97.3  97.3  97.3  92.9  90.7  90.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  19.0  21.0   1.0  42.0  39.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        1.5%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        3.8%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        1.4%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 AL032023 230622 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     57.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  34.0  41.6  41.1  33.1  41.1  30.2  30.2  N  F VF VF  F VF  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -6.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%