Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  41.8  40.0  32.7  37.3  36.5  33.8  33.8  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  59.0  38.0  35.0  50.0  37.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.1 100.1 100.1 102.3 100.1  95.7 100.1 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0   7.0   4.0  28.0  65.0  24.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 AL032023 230622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     58.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  41.8  40.0  32.7  37.3  36.5  33.8  33.8  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%