Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  34.9  29.7  30.8  36.3  28.6  32.8  32.8  U  U  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  34.0  31.0  32.0  59.0  26.0  46.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        102.3 100.1 100.1 100.1  93.6  91.5 102.3 102.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   2.0  42.0  65.0  31.0  39.0 -17.0 -17.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.02

 AL032023 230623 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20     60.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  34.9  29.7  30.8  36.3  28.6  32.8  32.8  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  57.0  60.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%