Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  28.8  30.6  38.2  35.6  33.9  33.9  33.9  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  31.0  32.0  45.0  29.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.1 105.1 105.1 102.9  94.4 100.7 100.7 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  16.0  60.0  53.0  28.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 AL032023 230623 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40     62.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  28.8  30.6  38.2  35.6  33.9  33.9  33.9  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%