Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     63.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.6  38.9  41.3  30.4  32.8  32.8  32.8  U  U  U VU  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  35.0  40.0  58.0  31.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.1 110.1 107.9 103.6 103.6 112.3 112.3 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  46.0  41.0  22.0  35.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 AL032023 230623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     63.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  33.6  38.9  41.3  30.4  32.8  32.8  32.8  N  F  F VF  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  59.0  64.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%