Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL032023 230624 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     71.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  30.0  34.7  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  24.0  36.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 108.6 110.7 117.3 117.3 117.3 117.3 117.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  45.0  49.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 AL032023 230624 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     71.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.0  30.0  34.7  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  34.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%