Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  15.8  14.1  16.5  15.7  20.3  28.2  40.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  19.0  29.0  22.0  17.0  33.0  28.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.2  96.0  97.7 101.2 101.2 104.8 108.5 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0  -8.0 -37.0 -36.0 -53.0  16.0  30.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  57.0  57.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  67.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   9.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        8.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.4%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.1%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 AL042023 230622 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.70     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.