Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042023 230622 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.20 42.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.0 13.5 15.8 17.7 15.2 24.1 28.4 32.6 F F F F F N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 22.0 14.0 11.0 31.0 27.0 21.0 39.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 97.7 99.4 97.7 101.2 101.2 108.5 112.4 116.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -28.0 -33.0 -53.0 -14.0 38.0 67.0 45.0 U VU VU VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 55.0 56.0 56.0 60.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 2.3% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 7.5% 3.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.5% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 1.6% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 2.6% 2.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.64 AL042023 230622 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.20 42.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.