Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  15.6  15.8  13.0  21.4  27.5  38.4  30.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  15.0  11.0  29.0  28.0  24.0  24.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         99.4  97.7 101.2 101.2 104.8 110.5 114.4 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -30.0 -27.0 -11.0  22.0  32.0  25.0  75.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   9.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.1%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.9%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.9%        1.1%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        1.8%        1.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 AL042023 230622 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     43.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.