Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042023 230623 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 44.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 32.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 14.6 11.9 13.3 23.0 33.1 36.0 34.2 F F F F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 11.0 27.0 31.0 27.0 21.0 35.0 37.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 94.4 96.2 98.0 99.8 107.4 111.5 109.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 -24.0 -17.0 -7.0 13.0 12.0 67.0 58.0 VU VU U U U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 62.0 59.0 U U U U U U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 11.0 11.0 2.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.3% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 9.6% 5.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.3% 1.7% 55kt / 48h 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 70kt / 48h 3.3% 1.4% 2.4% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 1.9% 1.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 AL042023 230623 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.60 44.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.