Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042023 230623 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 46.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 35.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 12.7 14.0 18.1 25.8 33.3 30.7 38.1 F F F F N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 28.0 37.0 30.0 27.0 24.0 49.0 24.0 U U U U U U N U Potential [kt] 91.2 93.0 93.0 96.6 102.4 106.5 110.7 108.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -27.0 -35.0 -3.0 15.0 34.0 30.0 70.0 23.0 VU VU U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 55.0 54.0 57.0 58.0 62.0 60.0 61.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.3% 3.0% 2.6% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 10.3% 6.4% 30kt / 24h 2.4% 5.1% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 4.4% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 2.4% 4.4% 3.4% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 18.6% 10.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.7% 4.3% 55kt / 48h 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 70kt / 48h 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 65kt / 72h 1.4% 3.3% 2.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.92 AL042023 230623 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 46.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.