Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.0  18.3  23.7  30.2  33.6  35.4  39.3  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  35.0  28.0  27.0  20.0  40.0  29.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  88.0  91.6  93.5 101.5 101.5 101.5 103.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -24.0  -3.0  19.0  49.0  40.0  54.0  13.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   4.0   4.0  10.0   2.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        4.0%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       10.8%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.5%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        4.9%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       15.4%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        2.1%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.98

 AL042023 230623 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.20     47.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.