Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230623 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  19.9  25.1  26.0  33.8  32.5  41.9  29.4  F  N  N  N  U  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  26.0  26.0  23.0  25.0  40.0  23.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.0  91.6  93.5  95.5 101.5  99.4 101.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0   8.0  30.0  25.0  36.0  46.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   6.0  10.0  10.0   7.0   1.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        1.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.6%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        0.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 AL042023 230623 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90     48.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.