Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042023 230624 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 49.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.1 24.2 24.7 28.6 35.2 39.0 38.5 27.5 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 26.0 23.0 20.0 42.0 27.0 24.0 39.0 U U U U N U U U Potential [kt] 91.6 93.5 95.5 97.4 101.5 99.4 99.4 101.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 36.0 34.0 34.0 42.0 59.0 10.0 31.0 U N N N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 60.0 59.0 53.0 U U U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 7.0 11.0 10.0 3.0 7.0 2.0 N N N U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 4.3% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.8% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 AL042023 230624 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.50 49.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.