Rapid Intensification Guidance AL042023 230624 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 50.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 24.2 29.3 38.3 37.3 42.8 29.5 29.0 N N N U U VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 25.0 20.0 24.0 39.0 29.0 25.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.6 88.5 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.4 96.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 49.0 65.0 56.0 56.0 35.0 27.0 12.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 58.0 59.0 61.0 62.0 62.0 58.0 57.0 U U U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 13.0 13.0 11.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 N N U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 2.8% 7.0% 4.9% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 3.1% 2.2% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 2.7% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 5.2% 2.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 AL042023 230624 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.10 50.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.