Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230624 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.1  31.6  40.1  41.1  38.8  34.8  24.7  26.4  N  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  28.0  36.0  37.0  30.0  25.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.5  92.4  94.4  94.4  94.4  92.4  94.4  90.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  80.0  76.0  61.0  36.0  21.0  32.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  11.0  10.0  14.0   5.0   8.0   2.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        0.8%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.38

 AL042023 230624 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     52.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.