Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     54.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.0  40.7  40.3  38.8  39.9  24.6  26.3  14.8  U VU  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  32.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  26.0  19.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  94.4  86.6  86.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  64.0  42.0  49.0  15.0  48.0  30.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  19.0  15.0  10.0   6.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  U VU  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 AL042023 230624 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10     54.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.