Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230625 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     55.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.5  43.3  41.4  40.7  38.1  29.6  24.5  24.5  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  29.0  37.0  24.0  20.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  92.4  90.5  83.0  83.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  47.0  47.0  38.0   6.0   9.0  31.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  14.0  20.0  10.0   8.0   3.0   6.0   6.0  U  U VU  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 AL042023 230625 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10     55.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.