Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL042023 230626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  24.2  26.4  22.6  17.2  24.3  24.9  27.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  36.0  34.0  26.0  22.0  22.0  18.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 117.4 119.4 115.5 115.5 115.5 109.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  35.0  24.0  12.0   7.0   9.0  11.0   8.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.6%        1.0%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 AL042023 230626 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60     62.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  24.2  26.4  22.6  17.2  24.3  24.9  27.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  58.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   2.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%